← Wallets
+$50Vitality · avg 84¢ → 84¢ · $8,450+$1,250Legacy · avg 69¢ → 82¢ · $8,150−$50Yes · avg 77¢ → 76¢ · $7,650−$300Team Spirit · avg 79¢ → 76¢ · $7,600−$50Yes · avg 70¢ → 70¢ · $6,950−$50Yes · avg 60¢ → 60¢ · $5,950+$50Natus Vincere · avg 57¢ → 57¢ · $5,750−$85FURIA · avg 83¢ → 82¢ · $5,047
What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 5 of 6. The prices it paid implied about 4.1 wins, so it did +14.5 pts better than the market expected. That's only 6 graded bets, too few to judge. Without its single best bet: +7.6 pts. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Current positions
Live from Polymarket (largest 8 open). P&L is unrealised, at today's price.
Price-adjusted edge
+14.5 pts
Called / graded
5/6
Expected from price
4.1
Flagged volume
$159.1k
Sample size6 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±17.7 pts std. error.
Graded P&L at their stakes
+$17k6 graded bets in the order they resolved · 5 won. Each step is one bet: win pays (1−price)/price × stake, loss costs the stake.
Past graded bets, not a prediction. Information, not advice.
Without their best bet
Leave out the single bet that helped most (Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-10-14? at 51¢) and the edge is +7.6 pts. If that falls apart, one bet made the record.
Calibration: won vs price paid
40–60¢
67% vs 53% · n=3
80–100¢
100% vs 84% · n=3
Bar = how often they won. White tick = what the price implied.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
−$180.7k
Last 30 days −$135.4k · $7.12M volume · 6,984 trades · since Aug 12, 20:00 EDT
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L · recent 500 closed
−$39.2k
Open P&L · 13 positions
−$32.7k
Closed-position win rate
60%
500 closed
Wallet age · markets
73d
503 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sports | 6 | 5 | 4.1 | +14.5 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-10-21? | LOW BUY Yes @ 80¢ | $16.0k | called |
 Counter-Strike: MIBR vs BC.Game Esports (BO3) - Stake Pulse Beat III Group D | LOW BUY MIBR @ 57¢ | $11.4k | missed |
| Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-10-14? | LOW BUY Yes @ 51¢ | $10.2k | called |
| Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-10-13? | LOW BUY Yes @ 52¢ | $10.4k | called |
 Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-09-16? | LOW BUY Yes @ 92¢ | $18.4k | called |
| Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-09-15? | LOW BUY Yes @ 81¢ | $16.2k | called |
| Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-08-27? | LOW BUY Yes @ 80¢ | $16.0k | excluded |
| Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Lynn Vision - Map 1 Winner | LOW SELL Team Falcons @ 99.9¢ | $27.0k | excluded |
| Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Spirit (BO3) - Esports World Cup Playoffs | LOW SELL Vitality @ 33¢ | $16.5k | excluded |
| Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Spirit (BO3) - Esports World Cup Playoffs | LOW BUY Vitality @ 34¢ | $17.0k | excluded |
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