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What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 0 of 1. The prices it paid implied about 0.4 wins, so it did -38.4 pts worse than the market expected. That's only 1 graded bet, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
-38.4 pts
Called / graded
0/1
Expected from price
0.4
Flagged volume
$10.2k
Sample size1 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±48.6 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
−$2,763
Last 30 days +$0 · $214.9k volume · 24 trades · since Nov 04, 19:00 EST
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
+$19.2k
Open P&L · 4 positions
−$22.0k
Closed-position win rate
86%
7 closed
Wallet age · markets
718d
10 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Politics | 1 | 0 | 0.4 | -38.4 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Will the Party for Freedom win the most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election? | LOW SELL No @ 62¢ | $10.2k | missed |
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JSON: /api/v1/wallet/0x96d459…