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+$1,307Yes · avg 79¢ → 92.5¢ · $8,957+$270Yes · avg 63¢ → 68¢ · $4,050 · 1 proven with, 0 against
What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 5 of 5. The prices it paid implied about 3.9 wins, so it did +21.9 pts better than the market expected. That's only 5 graded bets, too few to judge. Without its single best bet: +17.8 pts. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Current positions
Live from Polymarket (largest 8 open). P&L is unrealised, at today's price.
Open bets: who else is there
Other rated wallets holding the same side, or the other side, of this wallet's open bets.
Not No · 2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House
Same side: 2 proven · 0 losing Other side: 0 proven · 0 losing
Price-adjusted edge
+21.9 pts
Called / graded
5/5
Expected from price
3.9
Flagged volume
$181.3k
Sample size5 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±17.6 pts std. error.
Graded P&L at their stakes
+$20k5 graded bets in the order they resolved · 5 won. Each step is one bet: win pays (1−price)/price × stake, loss costs the stake.
Past graded bets, not a prediction. Information, not advice.
Without their best bet
Leave out the single bet that helped most (Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the Sep at 62¢) and the edge is +17.8 pts. If that falls apart, one bet made the record.
Calibration: won vs price paid
60–80¢
100% vs 68% · n=3
80–100¢
100% vs 93% · n=2
Bar = how often they won. White tick = what the price implied.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
+$34.9k
Last 30 days +$4,694 · $2.34M volume · 1,750 trades · since Oct 18, 20:00 EDT
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
+$95.5k
Open P&L · 32 positions
−$59.9k
Closed-position win rate
69%
327 closed
Wallet age · markets
737d
356 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Politics | 1 | 1 | 0.9 | +7.4 pts |
| Economy | 1 | 1 | 0.6 | +38.0 pts |
| Sports | 1 | 1 | 0.9 | +6.7 pts |
| Other | 2 | 2 | 1.4 | +28.6 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House | LOW SELL No @ 91¢ | $16.0k | pending |
 LoL: Gen.G vs Invictus Gaming (BO1) - Worlds Group Stage | LOW SELL Gen.G @ 99.9¢ | $12.0k | excluded |
 Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? | LOW BUY Yes @ 62¢ | $13.5k | called |
 Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | LOW BUY No @ 93.3¢ | $14.0k | called |
 Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | LOW SELL No @ 99.2¢ | $14.2k | excluded |
 Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? | LOW BUY No @ 72¢ | $14.4k | called |
 Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 Masters tournament? | LOW BUY Yes @ 71¢ | $10.7k | called |
 US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? | LOW SELL No @ 84¢ | $13.0k | called |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? | LOW BUY No @ 94¢ | $15.0k | missed |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | MED SELL No @ 80¢ | $26.4k | missed |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | LOW BUY No @ 62¢ | $20.5k | called |
 Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? | LOW BUY Yes @ 92.6¢ | $11.7k | called |
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