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What this means. We haven't graded any of this wallet's $10k+ bets yet. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
—
Called / graded
0/0
Expected from price
0.0
Flagged volume
$118.8k
Sample size0 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±0.0 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
−$21.1k
Last 30 days −$2,900 · $1.55M volume · 489 trades · since Sep 04, 20:00 EDT
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
−$14.4k
Open P&L · 4 positions
−$2,893
Closed-position win rate
47%
145 closed
Wallet age · markets
780d
208 markets traded
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-07? | LOW BUY Yes @ 73¢ | $16.6k | excluded |
 Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of March? | LOW SELL No @ 92.2¢ | $15.5k | missed |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of March? | LOW BUY No @ 86¢ | $14.5k | called |
 Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by February 28, 2026? | LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ | $15.3k | excluded |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by February 28, 2026? | LOW BUY No @ 99.9¢ | $15.3k | excluded |
 Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in February? | LOW SELL No @ 99.8¢ | $15.3k | excluded |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in February? | LOW BUY No @ 93.6¢ | $14.3k | called |
 US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? | LOW SELL No @ 93.1¢ | $12.0k | excluded |
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