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Alder

Directional Polymarket profile ↗ Backtest Alert me
What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 1 of 1. The prices it paid implied about 0.9 wins, so it did +6.4 pts better than the market expected. That's only 1 graded bet, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
+6.4 pts
Called / graded
1/1
Expected from price
0.9
Flagged volume
$438.7k
Sample size1 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±24.5 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
+$109.4k
Last 30 days +$759 · $4.35M volume · 3,195 trades · since Sep 07, 20:00 EDT

All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.

Polymarket profile

all trades, not just flags · public Data API
Realized P&L
+$107.2k
Open P&L · 4 positions
+$2,157
Closed-position win rate
91%
126 closed
Wallet age · markets
777d
125 markets traded

By category

CategoryGradedCalledExpectedEdge
Politics110.9+6.4 pts

History

MarketFlagSizeImplied oddsWhenResult
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31?LOW BUY No @ 99.9¢ $113.9k
3.3× usual
100% 85d agoexcluded
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?LOW SELL No @ 99.4¢ $74.2k
2.2× usual
1% 184d agoexcluded
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?LOW SELL No @ 99.4¢ $23.9k1% 185d agoexcluded
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?LOW BUY No @ 96¢ $94.7k
2.8× usual
96% 206d agocalled
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?LOW SELL No @ 99.3¢ $19.9k1% 210d agoexcluded
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?LOW SELL No @ 99.4¢ $34.4k1% 210d agoexcluded
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?LOW SELL No @ 99.6¢ $13.4k0% 210d agoexcluded
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?LOW BUY No @ 95.6¢ $25.4k96% 220d agocalled
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?MED BUY Yes @ 93.6¢ $38.9k94% 358d agocalled
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31?excluded
BUY No @ 99.9¢$113.9k
LOW Alder · 85d ago
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?excluded
SELL No @ 99.4¢$74.2k
LOW Alder · 184d ago
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?excluded
SELL No @ 99.4¢$23.9k
LOW Alder · 185d ago
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?called
BUY No @ 96¢$94.7k
LOW Alder · 206d ago
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?excluded
SELL No @ 99.3¢$19.9k
LOW Alder · 210d ago
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?excluded
SELL No @ 99.4¢$34.4k
LOW Alder · 210d ago
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?excluded
SELL No @ 99.6¢$13.4k
LOW Alder · 210d ago
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?called
BUY No @ 95.6¢$25.4k
LOW Alder · 220d ago
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?called
BUY Yes @ 93.6¢$38.9k
MED Alder · 358d ago

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