YEEES-but-why

Directional Polymarket profile ↗ Backtest Alert me

What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 0 of 1. The prices it paid implied about 0.5 wins, so it did -48.0 pts worse than the market expected. That's only 1 graded bet, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →

Current positions

Live from Polymarket (largest 8 open). P&L is unrealised, at today's price.

Will commitments to the 1W public sale exceed $60M?−$320Yes · avg 34¢ → 30¢ · $1,991 Will commitments to the 1W public sale exceed $40M?−$160Yes · avg 52¢ → 48¢ · $1,920 Will commitments to the 1W public sale exceed $20M?+$20Yes · avg 75¢ → 76¢ · $1,520 Will commitments to the 1W public sale exceed $30M?−$41Yes · avg 64¢ → 62¢ · $1,400 Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?−$56Yes · avg 85¢ → 80¢ · $944

Price-adjusted edge

-48.0 pts

Called / graded

0/1

Expected from price

0.5

Flagged volume

$360.5k

Sample size1 graded · too small to judge skill

We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±50.0 pts std. error.

Lifetime P&L on Polymarket

−$649.8k

Last 30 days −$353.7k · $7.71M volume · 2,718 trades · since Aug 29, 20:00 EDT

All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.

Polymarket profile

all trades, not just flags · public Data API

Realized P&L

−$649.3k

Open P&L · 5 positions

−$557

Closed-position win rate

41%

169 closed

Wallet age · markets

56d

166 markets traded

By category

Category	Graded	Called	Expected	Edge
Sports	1	0	0.5	-48.0 pts

History

Market	Flag	Size	Implied odds	When	Result
76ers vs. Knicks	LOW BUY 76ers @ 59¢	$14.1k	59%	3d ago	excluded
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-10-18?	LOW BUY No @ 36¢	$24.8k	36%	5d ago	excluded
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Spirit (BO3) - ESL Pro League Playoffs	LOW BUY Team Falcons @ 42¢	$11.2k	42%	14d ago	excluded
Broncos vs. 49ers	MED BUY 49ers @ 60¢	$74.4k 4.0× usual	60%	19d ago	excluded
Spread: Rams (-2.5)	LOW BUY Rams @ 45¢	$12.4k	45%	26d ago	excluded
Raiders vs. Saints	MED BUY Saints @ 87¢	$59.2k 3.2× usual	87%	26d ago	excluded
Ravens vs. Cowboys	MED BUY Ravens @ 81¢	$61.6k 3.3× usual	81%	26d ago	excluded
Spread: Rams (-2.5)	LOW BUY Rams @ 48¢	$18.7k	48%	26d ago	missed
Bengals vs. Texans	LOW BUY Texans @ 50¢	$10.2k	50%	33d ago	excluded
Cardinals vs. Chargers	LOW BUY Chargers @ 81¢	$12.9k	81%	40d ago	excluded
Will Club Brugge KV win on 2026-09-08?	LOW SELL No @ 61¢	$61.0k 3.3× usual	39%	45d ago	excluded

76ers vs. Knicksexcluded

BUY 76ers @ 59¢$14.1k

LOW YEEES-but-why · 3d ago

Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-10-18?excluded

BUY No @ 36¢$24.8k

LOW YEEES-but-why · 5d ago

Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Spirit (BO3) - ESL Pro League Playoffsexcluded

BUY Team Falcons @ 42¢$11.2k

LOW YEEES-but-why · 14d ago

Broncos vs. 49ersexcluded

BUY 49ers @ 60¢$74.4k

MED YEEES-but-why · 19d ago

Spread: Rams (-2.5)excluded

BUY Rams @ 45¢$12.4k

LOW YEEES-but-why · 26d ago

Raiders vs. Saintsexcluded

BUY Saints @ 87¢$59.2k

MED YEEES-but-why · 26d ago

Ravens vs. Cowboysexcluded

BUY Ravens @ 81¢$61.6k

MED YEEES-but-why · 26d ago

Spread: Rams (-2.5)missed

BUY Rams @ 48¢$18.7k

LOW YEEES-but-why · 26d ago

Bengals vs. Texansexcluded

BUY Texans @ 50¢$10.2k

LOW YEEES-but-why · 33d ago

Cardinals vs. Chargersexcluded

BUY Chargers @ 81¢$12.9k

LOW YEEES-but-why · 40d ago

Will Club Brugge KV win on 2026-09-08?excluded

SELL No @ 61¢$61.0k

LOW YEEES-but-why · 45d ago

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