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+$1,024No · avg 80¢ → 93.5¢ · $7,024+$24Yes · avg 90.5¢ → 93.2¢ · $824
What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 1 of 3. The prices it paid implied about 2.8 wins, so it did -60.7 pts worse than the market expected. That's only 3 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Current positions
Live from Polymarket (largest 8 open). P&L is unrealised, at today's price.
Price-adjusted edge
-60.7 pts
Called / graded
1/3
Expected from price
2.8
Flagged volume
$60.3k
Sample size3 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±13.6 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
−$17.6k
Last 30 days +$73 · $439.9k volume · 519 trades · since Dec 06, 19:00 EST
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
+$49.3k
Open P&L · 9 positions
−$64.6k
Closed-position win rate
75%
87 closed
Wallet age · markets
687d
93 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Other | 3 | 1 | 2.8 | -60.7 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? | LOW BUY No @ 94¢ | $15.3k | missed |
 Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026? | LOW BUY No @ 92¢ | $15.0k | missed |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by January 31, 2026? | LOW BUY No @ 96.2¢ | $30.0k | called |
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JSON: /api/v1/wallet/0x8f118d…