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What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 4 of 4. The prices it paid implied about 3.6 wins, so it did +9.7 pts better than the market expected. That's only 4 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
+9.7 pts
Called / graded
4/4
Expected from price
3.6
Flagged volume
$202.7k
Sample size4 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±14.7 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
+$18.5k
Last 30 days +$0 · $3.59M volume · 1,350 trades · since Mar 16, 20:00 EDT
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
+$88.4k
Open P&L · 8 positions
−$62.8k
Closed-position win rate
72%
43 closed
Wallet age · markets
1319d
50 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Politics | 4 | 4 | 3.6 | +9.7 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? | LOW BUY Yes @ 94.5¢ | $66.3k | called |
| Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? | LOW BUY Yes @ 90.5¢ | $50.6k | called |
| Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? | LOW BUY Yes @ 90¢ | $28.7k | called |
| Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? | MED BUY Yes @ 87¢ | $57.0k | called |
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JSON: /api/v1/wallet/0x8f0da3…