← Wallets
−$28.0kYes · avg 5¢ → 2.1¢ · $19.7k−$1,749No · avg 37¢ → 34¢ · $16.7k · 0 proven with, 2 against−$480Yes · avg 15¢ → 14¢ · $4,323−$6,900Yes · avg 9.9¢ → 3¢ · $3,050+$50Yes · avg 2.3¢ → 2.4¢ · $2,205−$523Yes · avg 27¢ → 10¢ · $333−$6Yes · avg 2.3¢ → 1.7¢ · $16
What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 3 of 10. The prices it paid implied about 1.6 wins, so it did +13.6 pts better than the market expected. That's only 10 graded bets, too few to judge. Without its single best bet: +5.7 pts. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Current positions
Live from Polymarket (largest 8 open). P&L is unrealised, at today's price.
Price-adjusted edge
+13.6 pts
Called / graded
3/10
Expected from price
1.6
Flagged volume
$521.9k
Sample size10 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±11.0 pts std. error.
Graded P&L at their stakes
+$336k10 graded bets in the order they resolved · 3 won. Each step is one bet: win pays (1−price)/price × stake, loss costs the stake.
Past graded bets, not a prediction. Information, not advice.
Without their best bet
Leave out the single bet that helped most (Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? at 16¢) and the edge is +5.7 pts. If that falls apart, one bet made the record.
Calibration: won vs price paid
0–20¢
25% vs 10% · n=8
20–40¢
0% vs 39% · n=1
40–60¢
100% vs 42% · n=1
Bar = how often they won. White tick = what the price implied.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
+$1.47M
Last 30 days −$30.0k · $35.25M volume · 23,143 trades · since Jul 16, 20:00 EDT
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
+$4.04M
Open P&L · 113 positions
−$2.72M
Closed-position win rate
53%
282 closed
Wallet age · markets
1926d
375 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sports | 10 | 3 | 1.6 | +13.6 pts |
History
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