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mrmoonlight

Directional Polymarket profile ↗ Backtest Alert me
What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 0 of 1. The prices it paid implied about 0.4 wins, so it did -37.0 pts worse than the market expected. That's only 1 graded bet, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
-37.0 pts
Called / graded
0/1
Expected from price
0.4
Flagged volume
$41.9k
Sample size1 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±48.3 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
−$61.8k
Last 30 days +$43 · $806.0k volume · 757 trades · since Jan 11, 19:00 EST

All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.

Polymarket profile

all trades, not just flags · public Data API
Realized P&L
+$26.1k
Open P&L · 16 positions
−$82.6k
Closed-position win rate
71%
59 closed
Wallet age · markets
286d
70 markets traded

By category

CategoryGradedCalledExpectedEdge
Sports100.4-37.0 pts

History

MarketFlagSizeImplied oddsWhenResult
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Team Liquid (BO3) - The International PlayoffsLOW BUY Team Liquid @ 37¢ $18.5k37% 63d agomissed
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?LOW BUY No @ 99.6¢ $23.4k100% 143d agoexcluded

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JSON: /api/v1/wallet/0x87ddd7…