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+$47No · avg 95.1¢ → 98.6¢ · $1,323+$215No · avg 26¢ → 97.8¢ · $293+$21No · avg 88¢ → 97.1¢ · $220
What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 1 of 1. The prices it paid implied about 0.9 wins, so it did +8.5 pts better than the market expected. That's only 1 graded bet, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Current positions
Live from Polymarket (largest 8 open). P&L is unrealised, at today's price.
Price-adjusted edge
+8.5 pts
Called / graded
1/1
Expected from price
0.9
Flagged volume
$279.7k
Sample size1 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±27.9 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
+$1,948
Last 30 days +$14 · $4.04M volume · 3,241 trades · since Oct 28, 20:00 EDT
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
−$89.7k
Open P&L · 8 positions
+$32
Closed-position win rate
55%
216 closed
Wallet age · markets
362d
257 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Politics | 1 | 1 | 0.9 | +8.5 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Will Eleven die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"? | LOW BUY No @ 99.9¢ | $91.1k | excluded |
| Will Eleven die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"? | LOW BUY No @ 98.9¢ | $44.1k | excluded |
 Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? | LOW BUY Yes @ 99.7¢ | $118.9k | excluded |
| Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? | LOW BUY Yes @ 91.5¢ | $25.6k | called |
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