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TheOpportunist

Directional Polymarket profile ↗ Backtest Alert me
What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 1 of 3. The prices it paid implied about 1.5 wins, so it did -18.0 pts worse than the market expected. That's only 3 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →

Current positions

Live from Polymarket (largest 8 open). P&L is unrealised, at today's price.

Will Besiktas win the 2026-27 UEFA Europa League Championship?+$3Yes · avg 3.7¢ → 4.5¢ · $17
Price-adjusted edge
-18.0 pts
Called / graded
1/3
Expected from price
1.5
Flagged volume
$128.1k
Sample size3 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±28.5 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
+$96.8k
Last 30 days −$76.3k · $9.79M volume · 17,591 trades · since Jul 02, 20:00 EDT

All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.

Polymarket profile

all trades, not just flags · public Data API
Realized P&L · recent 500 closed
+$1.56M
Open P&L · 103 positions
−$1.10M
Closed-position win rate
88%
500 closed
Wallet age · markets
479d
902 markets traded

By category

CategoryGradedCalledExpectedEdge
Sports311.5-18.0 pts

History

MarketFlagSizeImplied oddsWhenResult
Rockets vs. SpursLOW BUY Rockets @ 36¢ $40.3k36% 22h agoexcluded
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-10-18?LOW BUY No @ 40¢ $26.4k40% 6d agomissed
Will Málaga CF win on 2026-08-24?LOW BUY No @ 59¢ $13.0k59% 61d agocalled
Will France win on 2026-07-18?LOW SELL No @ 45¢ $18.0k55% 98d agomissed
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-19?LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ $30.5k0% 158d agoexcluded

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JSON: /api/v1/wallet/0x7d2f82…