haristotle

Directional Polymarket profile ↗ Backtest Alert me

What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 1 of 3. The prices it paid implied about 1.7 wins, so it did -22.7 pts worse than the market expected. That's only 3 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →

Price-adjusted edge

-22.7 pts

Called / graded

1/3

Expected from price

1.7

Flagged volume

$279.8k

Sample size3 graded · too small to judge skill

We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±28.6 pts std. error.

Lifetime P&L on Polymarket

+$43.5k

Last 30 days +$0 · $808.7k volume · 63 trades · since Jul 14, 20:00 EDT

All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.

Polymarket profile

all trades, not just flags · public Data API

Realized P&L

+$141.8k

Open P&L · 16 positions

−$96.6k

Closed-position win rate

77%

13 closed

Wallet age · markets

467d

30 markets traded

By category

Category	Graded	Called	Expected	Edge
Sports	3	1	1.7	-22.7 pts

History

Market	Flag	Size	Implied odds	When	Result
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19?	LOW BUY Yes @ 60¢	$13.8k	60%	126d ago	called
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5	LOW BUY Under @ 54¢	$24.0k	54%	128d ago	missed
Spurs vs. Knicks	LOW SELL Knicks @ 99.9¢	$89.6k 3.7× usual	0%	135d ago	excluded
Spurs vs. Knicks	LOW BUY Knicks @ 55¢	$49.2k 2.1× usual	55%	135d ago	called
Spurs vs. Knicks	LOW BUY Knicks @ 54¢	$21.3k	54%	137d ago	missed
Knicks vs. Spurs	LOW SELL Knicks @ 99.9¢	$15.1k	0%	140d ago	excluded
Knicks vs. Spurs	LOW SELL Knicks @ 99.9¢	$27.0k	0%	142d ago	excluded
Spurs vs. Thunder	LOW SELL Spurs @ 99¢	$27.7k	1%	146d ago	excluded
Spurs vs. Thunder	LOW BUY Spurs @ 43¢	$12.0k	43%	146d ago	called

Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19?called

BUY Yes @ 60¢$13.8k

LOW haristotle · 126d ago

England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5missed

BUY Under @ 54¢$24.0k

LOW haristotle · 128d ago

Spurs vs. Knicksexcluded

SELL Knicks @ 99.9¢$89.6k

LOW haristotle · 135d ago

Spurs vs. Knickscalled

BUY Knicks @ 55¢$49.2k

LOW haristotle · 135d ago

Spurs vs. Knicksmissed

BUY Knicks @ 54¢$21.3k

LOW haristotle · 137d ago

Knicks vs. Spursexcluded

SELL Knicks @ 99.9¢$15.1k

LOW haristotle · 140d ago

Knicks vs. Spursexcluded

SELL Knicks @ 99.9¢$27.0k

LOW haristotle · 142d ago

Spurs vs. Thunderexcluded

SELL Spurs @ 99¢$27.7k

LOW haristotle · 146d ago

Spurs vs. Thundercalled

BUY Spurs @ 43¢$12.0k

LOW haristotle · 146d ago

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