← Wallets
−$272Yes · avg 56¢ → 51¢ · $3,372−$2,864No · avg 39¢ → 20¢ · $3,058+$1,051No · avg 15¢ → 24¢ · $2,884+$219No · avg 66¢ → 72¢ · $2,451 · 1 proven with, 0 against+$30No · avg 36¢ → 36¢ · $2,190+$433Yes · avg 12¢ → 19¢ · $1,297−$1,156No · avg 44¢ → 16¢ · $657−$20Yes · avg 10¢ → 9.5¢ · $380 · 0 proven with, 1 against
What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 1 of 1. The prices it paid implied about 0.9 wins, so it did +6.2 pts better than the market expected. That's only 1 graded bet, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Current positions
Live from Polymarket (largest 8 open). P&L is unrealised, at today's price.
Price-adjusted edge
+6.2 pts
Called / graded
1/1
Expected from price
0.9
Flagged volume
$134.2k
Sample size1 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±24.1 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
+$83.1k
Last 30 days −$16.7k · $15.78M volume · 29,340 trades · since Nov 16, 19:00 EST
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L · recent 500 closed
+$294.3k
Open P&L · 77 positions
−$18.1k
Closed-position win rate
49%
500 closed
Wallet age · markets
342d
436 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Other | 1 | 1 | 0.9 | +6.2 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | LOW BUY Yes @ 97¢ | $14.6k | excluded |
 Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? | LOW BUY No @ 93.8¢ | $14.1k | called |
| Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | LOW SELL Yes @ 65¢ | $13.0k | missed |
| Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | LOW SELL Yes @ 66¢ | $11.9k | missed |
 US strikes Iran by February 25, 2026? | LOW BUY No @ 99.2¢ | $14.9k | excluded |
| US strikes Iran by February 23, 2026? | LOW SELL No @ 99.6¢ | $19.9k | excluded |
| US strikes Iran by February 21, 2026? | LOW BUY No @ 99.5¢ | $11.9k | excluded |
| US strikes Iran by January 23, 2026? | LOW BUY No @ 97.1¢ | $34.0k 2.4× usual |
excluded |
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