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What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 0 of 3. The prices it paid implied about 0.3 wins, so it did -11.5 pts worse than the market expected. That's only 3 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
-11.5 pts
Called / graded
0/3
Expected from price
0.3
Flagged volume
$45.1k
Sample size3 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±18.4 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
−$40.2k
Last 30 days +$0 · $1.08M volume · 2,159 trades · since Oct 06, 20:00 EDT
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
−$38.9k
Open P&L · 1 positions
−$1,334
Closed-position win rate
69%
202 closed
Wallet age · markets
383d
201 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Politics | 3 | 0 | 0.3 | -11.5 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? | LOW SELL Yes @ 88¢ | $17.6k | missed |
| Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? | LOW SELL Yes @ 88¢ | $14.1k | missed |
| Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? | LOW SELL Yes @ 89¢ | $13.4k | missed |
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JSON: /api/v1/wallet/0x735563…