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What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 1 of 1. The prices it paid implied about 0.8 wins, so it did +15.0 pts better than the market expected. That's only 1 graded bet, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
+15.0 pts
Called / graded
1/1
Expected from price
0.8
Flagged volume
$12.7k
Sample size1 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±35.7 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
+$1,245
Last 30 days +$0 · $209.3k volume · 86 trades · since Dec 25, 19:00 EST
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
+$1,302
Open P&L · 2 positions
−$60
Closed-position win rate
32%
31 closed
Wallet age · markets
303d
32 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Economy | 1 | 1 | 0.8 | +15.0 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 meeting? | LOW SELL Yes @ 15¢ | $12.7k | called |
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JSON: /api/v1/wallet/0x6bed0a…