← Wallets
+$500No · avg 71¢ → 74¢ · $14.7k · 1 proven with, 0 against+$5,663No · avg 50¢ → 90.5¢ · $12.7k+$909No · avg 70¢ → 78¢ · $8,988−$748Yes · avg 87¢ → 80¢ · $8,216−$1,250No · avg 61¢ → 48¢ · $4,384−$7,686Yes · avg 50¢ → 9.6¢ · $1,814−$193Yes · avg 60¢ → 47¢ · $679−$0No · avg 81¢ → 80¢ · $45
What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 4 of 6. The prices it paid implied about 4.3 wins, so it did -4.5 pts worse than the market expected. That's only 6 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Current positions
Live from Polymarket (largest 8 open). P&L is unrealised, at today's price.
Price-adjusted edge
-4.5 pts
Called / graded
4/6
Expected from price
4.3
Flagged volume
$148.8k
Sample size6 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±14.5 pts std. error.
Graded P&L at their stakes
−$19k6 graded bets in the order they resolved · 4 won. Each step is one bet: win pays (1−price)/price × stake, loss costs the stake.
Past graded bets, not a prediction. Information, not advice.
Without their best bet
Leave out the single bet that helped most (Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect at 67¢) and the edge is -12.0 pts. If that falls apart, one bet made the record.
Calibration: won vs price paid
0–20¢
0% vs 13% · n=1
60–80¢
100% vs 69% · n=2
80–100¢
67% vs 92% · n=3
Bar = how often they won. White tick = what the price implied.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
+$67.2k
Last 30 days −$651 · $10.26M volume · 12,487 trades · since Feb 13, 19:00 EST
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L · recent 500 closed
+$943.9k
Open P&L · 126 positions
−$195.2k
Closed-position win rate
100%
500 closed
Wallet age · markets
2068d
731 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Other | 3 | 2 | 2.8 | -25.3 pts |
| Politics | 3 | 2 | 1.5 | +16.3 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | LOW BUY Yes @ 74¢ | $13.3k | excluded |
 Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | LOW SELL No @ 87¢ | $20.0k | missed |
| Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | LOW BUY Yes @ 67¢ | $13.4k | called |
 Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán? | LOW BUY No @ 71¢ | $15.8k | called |
 Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? | LOW BUY No @ 94¢ | $11.3k | called |
 US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? | LOW BUY No @ 88¢ | $13.2k | missed |
 Seahawks vs. Patriots | LOW BUY Seahawks @ 96¢ | $24.0k | excluded |
 Will the government shutdown last 5 days or more? | LOW BUY No @ 94¢ | $13.7k | called |
 Will André Ventura win the 2026 Portugal presidential election? | LOW SELL No @ 98.4¢ | $10.4k | excluded |
| Will André Ventura win the 2026 Portugal presidential election? | LOW BUY No @ 95.2¢ | $13.8k | called |
Share this record
<a href="https://whalegrader.com/wallet/0x69e7ad68b5f11e97927e4bd938baf7dfb60bd3b0"><img src="https://whalegrader.com/badge/wallet/0x69e7ad68b5f11e97927e4bd938baf7dfb60bd3b0.svg" alt="WhaleGrader record"></a>
JSON: /api/v1/wallet/0x69e7ad…