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−$51Yes · avg 93¢ → 91.5¢ · $3,099−$5No · avg 92.9¢ → 88¢ · $107−$2No · avg 96.1¢ → 94.3¢ · $104
What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 4 of 5. The prices it paid implied about 4.7 wins, so it did -14.5 pts worse than the market expected. That's only 5 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Current positions
Live from Polymarket (largest 8 open). P&L is unrealised, at today's price.
Price-adjusted edge
-14.5 pts
Called / graded
4/5
Expected from price
4.7
Flagged volume
$271.5k
Sample size5 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±10.2 pts std. error.
Graded P&L at their stakes
−$16k5 graded bets in the order they resolved · 4 won. Each step is one bet: win pays (1−price)/price × stake, loss costs the stake.
Past graded bets, not a prediction. Information, not advice.
Without their best bet
Leave out the single bet that helped most (US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? at 93¢) and the edge is -19.9 pts. If that falls apart, one bet made the record.
Calibration: won vs price paid
80–100¢
80% vs 95% · n=5
Bar = how often they won. White tick = what the price implied.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
+$4,150
Last 30 days +$166 · $1.98M volume · 1,578 trades · since Jul 19, 20:00 EDT
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
+$34.0k
Open P&L · 11 positions
−$28.6k
Closed-position win rate
87%
101 closed
Wallet age · markets
462d
110 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Other | 4 | 3 | 3.8 | -19.0 pts |
| Economy | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | +3.5 pts |
History
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