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donaldbush

Directional Polymarket profile ↗ Backtest Alert me
What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 2 of 2. The prices it paid implied about 1.5 wins, so it did +25.0 pts better than the market expected. That's only 2 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →

Current positions

Live from Polymarket (largest 8 open). P&L is unrealised, at today's price.

LoL: Invictus Gaming vs Team Secret Whales (BO1) - Worlds Group Stage−$58Invictus Gaming · avg 71¢ → 60¢ · $333
Price-adjusted edge
+25.0 pts
Called / graded
2/2
Expected from price
1.5
Flagged volume
$77.2k
Sample size2 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±30.6 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
−$123.9k
Last 30 days −$76.7k · $2.93M volume · 6,695 trades · since Apr 20, 20:00 EDT

All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.

Polymarket profile

all trades, not just flags · public Data API
Realized P&L · recent 500 closed
+$461.7k
Open P&L · 333 positions
−$302.1k
Closed-position win rate
100%
500 closed
Wallet age · markets
553d
1339 markets traded

By category

CategoryGradedCalledExpectedEdge
Sports221.5+25.0 pts

History

MarketFlagSizeImplied oddsWhenResult
Giants vs. RamsLOW BUY Rams @ 74¢ $29.6k74% 32d agocalled
Eagles vs. TitansLOW BUY Eagles @ 76¢ $15.2k76% 34d agocalled
LSU vs. Ole MissLOW BUY Ole Miss @ 75¢ $32.4k75% 34d agoexcluded

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JSON: /api/v1/wallet/0x66b23c…