Goopster

Directional Polymarket profile ↗ Backtest Alert me

What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 0 of 1. The prices it paid implied about 0.9 wins, so it did -93.9 pts worse than the market expected. That's only 1 graded bet, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →

Current positions

Live from Polymarket (largest 8 open). P&L is unrealised, at today's price.

Will Israel strike 4 countries in 2026?−$70Yes · avg 86¢ → 74¢ · $447 Will Israel strike 7 countries in 2026?+$1No · avg 98.5¢ → 98.9¢ · $270 Will Israel strike 15 or more countries in 2026?−$2No · avg 99.9¢ → 98.9¢ · $219 Will Israel strike 5 countries in 2026?−$189Yes · avg 36¢ → 19¢ · $205 Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?−$192Yes · avg 36¢ → 17¢ · $168 Will SpaceX have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?−$21Yes · avg 88¢ → 67¢ · $68 Will Anthropic have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?−$4No · avg 94.3¢ → 72¢ · $12

Price-adjusted edge

-93.9 pts

Called / graded

0/1

Expected from price

0.9

Flagged volume

$143.6k

Sample size1 graded · too small to judge skill

We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±23.9 pts std. error.

Lifetime P&L on Polymarket

−$6,847

Last 30 days +$199 · $6.56M volume · 3,255 trades · since Oct 20, 20:00 EDT

All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.

Polymarket profile

all trades, not just flags · public Data API

Realized P&L · recent 400 closed

+$53.7k

Open P&L · 0 positions

+$0

Closed-position win rate

88%

400 closed

Wallet age · markets

—

533 markets traded

By category

Category	Graded	Called	Expected	Edge
Other	1	0	0.9	-93.9 pts

History

Market	Flag	Size	Implied odds	When	Result
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	LOW SELL No @ 94¢	$18.8k	6%	167d ago	missed
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by May 31?	LOW SELL No @ 98.9¢	$11.9k	1%	167d ago	excluded
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	LOW BUY No @ 92¢	$18.4k	92%	172d ago	called
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?	LOW BUY No @ 93.9¢	$18.8k	94%	172d ago	missed
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?	LOW BUY No @ 97.7¢	$57.2k 3.1× usual	98%	181d ago	excluded
Maduro in U.S. custody by January 31?	LOW BUY Yes @ 99.9¢	$18.6k	100%	293d ago	excluded

US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?missed

SELL No @ 94¢$18.8k

LOW Goopster · 167d ago

Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by May 31?excluded

SELL No @ 98.9¢$11.9k

LOW Goopster · 167d ago

US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?called

BUY No @ 92¢$18.4k

LOW Goopster · 172d ago

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?missed

BUY No @ 93.9¢$18.8k

LOW Goopster · 172d ago

US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?excluded

BUY No @ 97.7¢$57.2k

LOW Goopster · 181d ago

Maduro in U.S. custody by January 31?excluded

BUY Yes @ 99.9¢$18.6k

LOW Goopster · 293d ago

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