← Wallets
−$172Yes · avg 47¢ → 46¢ · $8,251+$142No · avg 27¢ → 97.9¢ · $196+$63Yes · avg 23¢ → 78¢ · $89
What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 1 of 4. The prices it paid implied about 3.0 wins, so it did -49.0 pts worse than the market expected. That's only 4 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Current positions
Live from Polymarket (largest 8 open). P&L is unrealised, at today's price.
Price-adjusted edge
-49.0 pts
Called / graded
1/4
Expected from price
3.0
Flagged volume
$65.7k
Sample size4 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±21.3 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
−$36.4k
Last 30 days −$304 · $1.20M volume · 1,036 trades · since Feb 11, 19:00 EST
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
+$42.4k
Open P&L · 10 positions
−$74.3k
Closed-position win rate
55%
93 closed
Wallet age · markets
986d
97 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Politics | 1 | 1 | 0.9 | +8.1 pts |
| Other | 3 | 0 | 2.0 | -68.0 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? | LOW BUY Yes @ 91.9¢ | $10.1k | called |
 Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025? | LOW BUY Yes @ 73¢ | $11.0k | missed |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025? | LOW BUY Yes @ 65¢ | $19.5k | missed |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025? | LOW BUY Yes @ 66¢ | $25.0k | missed |
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