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+$597No · avg 85¢ → 91.1¢ · $8,292−$1,474No · avg 61¢ → 48¢ · $5,309−$3,011Yes · avg 58¢ → 36¢ · $5,205+$2,451Yes · avg 52¢ → 97.8¢ · $5,204−$970No · avg 42¢ → 34¢ · $4,526−$2,388No · avg 53¢ → 32¢ · $3,858 · 0 proven with, 1 against−$1,340Yes · avg 53¢ → 34¢ · $2,362+$538No · avg 39¢ → 53¢ · $2,054
What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 2 of 3. The prices it paid implied about 1.3 wins, so it did +21.7 pts better than the market expected. That's only 3 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Current positions
Live from Polymarket (largest 8 open). P&L is unrealised, at today's price.
Price-adjusted edge
+21.7 pts
Called / graded
2/3
Expected from price
1.3
Flagged volume
$471.5k
Sample size3 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±28.2 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
−$3.97M
Last 30 days +$12.8k · $213.37M volume · 327,935 trades · since May 14, 20:00 EDT
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L · recent 500 closed
+$18.73M
Open P&L · 77 positions
−$22.1k
Closed-position win rate
100%
500 closed
Wallet age · markets
528d
7057 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sports | 3 | 2 | 1.3 | +21.7 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Will Morocco win on 2026-07-04? | LOW BUY Yes @ 44¢ | $17.6k | excluded |
| Will Morocco win on 2026-07-04? | LOW BUY Yes @ 55¢ | $11.0k | called |
 Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | LOW BUY Yes @ 33¢ | $16.4k | missed |
| Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? | MED BUY Yes @ 55¢ | $39.8k 2.3× usual |
excluded |
| Will United States win on 2026-06-25? | LOW BUY Yes @ 72¢ | $20.6k | excluded |
| Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? | LOW BUY No @ 48¢ | $35.4k 2.0× usual |
excluded |
| Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? | LOW BUY No @ 36¢ | $14.4k | excluded |
| Will United States win on 2026-06-12? | MED BUY Yes @ 47¢ | $117.5k 6.7× usual |
called |
 Spurs vs. Knicks | LOW BUY Spurs @ 68¢ | $17.0k | excluded |
| Spurs vs. Thunder | MED BUY Spurs @ 48¢ | $167.0k 9.5× usual |
excluded |
 Internationaux de Strasbourg: Marie Bouzkova vs Katerina Siniakova | LOW SELL Katerina Siniakova @ 53¢ | $14.8k | excluded |
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