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What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 0 of 1. The prices it paid implied about 0.7 wins, so it did -70.0 pts worse than the market expected. That's only 1 graded bet, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
-70.0 pts
Called / graded
0/1
Expected from price
0.7
Flagged volume
$158.0k
Sample size1 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±45.8 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
−$142.9k
Last 30 days +$0 · $3.04M volume · 1,441 trades · since Apr 29, 20:00 EDT
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
−$135.7k
Open P&L · 1 positions
−$218
Closed-position win rate
42%
177 closed
Wallet age · markets
178d
181 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sports | 1 | 0 | 0.7 | -70.0 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? | LOW BUY Yes @ 52¢ | $17.1k | excluded |
 Toronto Blue Jays vs. Atlanta Braves | LOW BUY Atlanta Braves @ 70¢ | $52.5k 3.1× usual |
missed |
| Colorado Rockies vs. Los Angeles Angels | LOW BUY Los Angeles Angels @ 65¢ | $10.4k | excluded |
 Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-19? | LOW BUY No @ 41¢ | $10.2k | excluded |
 Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-16? | LOW BUY Yes @ 54¢ | $24.3k | excluded |
 Wild vs. Avalanche | LOW BUY Avalanche @ 67¢ | $32.2k | excluded |
 Lakers vs. Thunder | LOW BUY Thunder @ 87¢ | $11.3k | excluded |
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JSON: /api/v1/wallet/0x4c0abb…