troim

Directional Polymarket profile ↗ Backtest Alert me

What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 0 of 1. The prices it paid implied about 0.3 wins, so it did -27.0 pts worse than the market expected. That's only 1 graded bet, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →

Current positions

Live from Polymarket (largest 8 open). P&L is unrealised, at today's price.

Will Google have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?+$2,307Yes · avg 71¢ → 90.2¢ · $10.8k Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?+$30No · avg 63¢ → 64¢ · $5,080 Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 31, 2026?+$3,628No · avg 18¢ → 70¢ · $4,914 Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?+$260No · avg 66¢ → 72¢ · $2,900 · 1 proven with, 0 against Will Student List – Students Win win the most seats in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election?+$160No · avg 67¢ → 71¢ · $2,840 · 1 proven with, 0 against Next White House Press Secretary announced by November 30, 2026?+$961No · avg 43¢ → 67¢ · $2,680 Will STRC hit $100 by December 31?−$1,100No · avg 37¢ → 26¢ · $2,610 Will Trump and Putin not meet?+$1,363No · avg 39¢ → 84¢ · $2,520

Price-adjusted edge

-27.0 pts

Called / graded

0/1

Expected from price

0.3

Flagged volume

$40.9k

Sample size1 graded · too small to judge skill

We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±44.4 pts std. error.

Lifetime P&L on Polymarket

+$84.4k

Last 30 days +$14.3k · $29.77M volume · 31,917 trades · since Jan 25, 19:00 EST

All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.

Polymarket profile

all trades, not just flags · public Data API

Realized P&L · recent 500 closed

+$650.9k

Open P&L · 500 positions

−$385.9k

Closed-position win rate

100%

500 closed

Wallet age · markets

272d

1235 markets traded

By category

Category	Graded	Called	Expected	Edge
Other	1	0	0.3	-27.0 pts

History

Market	Flag	Size	Implied odds	When	Result
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?	LOW SELL Yes @ 73¢	$11.0k	27%	131d ago	missed
US forces enter Iran by April 30?	LOW BUY Yes @ 99.8¢	$29.9k	100%	199d ago	excluded

US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?missed

SELL Yes @ 73¢$11.0k

LOW troim · 131d ago

US forces enter Iran by April 30?excluded

BUY Yes @ 99.8¢$29.9k

LOW troim · 199d ago

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