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What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 4 of 4. The prices it paid implied about 3.7 wins, so it did +8.6 pts better than the market expected. That's only 4 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
+8.6 pts
Called / graded
4/4
Expected from price
3.7
Flagged volume
$68.8k
Sample size4 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±14.0 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
+$10.5k
Last 30 days +$0 · $205.8k volume · 80 trades · since Jun 30, 20:00 EDT
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
+$18.2k
Open P&L · 6 positions
−$7,708
Closed-position win rate
81%
43 closed
Wallet age · markets
846d
46 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Politics | 4 | 4 | 3.7 | +8.6 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? | LOW BUY Yes @ 90¢ | $15.0k | called |
| Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? | LOW BUY Yes @ 93.9¢ | $15.0k | called |
| Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? | LOW BUY Yes @ 91¢ | $28.7k | called |
| Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? | LOW BUY Yes @ 91¢ | $10.0k | called |
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JSON: /api/v1/wallet/0x4630c2…