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What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 1 of 2. The prices it paid implied about 1.4 wins, so it did -20.5 pts worse than the market expected. That's only 2 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
-20.5 pts
Called / graded
1/2
Expected from price
1.4
Flagged volume
$52.1k
Sample size2 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±31.5 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
−$207.4k
Last 30 days −$79.8k · $4.59M volume · 7,858 trades · since Apr 07, 20:00 EDT
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
−$125.4k
Open P&L · 14 positions
−$81.0k
Closed-position win rate
50%
377 closed
Wallet age · markets
200d
381 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sports | 2 | 1 | 1.4 | -20.5 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 US Open ATP: Alexander Zverev vs Karen Khachanov | LOW BUY Alexander Zverev @ 80¢ | $21.6k | called |
| Roland Garros ATP: Matteo Arnaldi vs Stefanos Tsitsipas | LOW BUY Stefanos Tsitsipas @ 61¢ | $30.5k | missed |
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JSON: /api/v1/wallet/0x45e40d…