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What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 0 of 2. The prices it paid implied about 1.5 wins, so it did -74.7 pts worse than the market expected. That's only 2 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
-74.7 pts
Called / graded
0/2
Expected from price
1.5
Flagged volume
$291.2k
Sample size2 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±30.6 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
−$537.0k
Last 30 days +$0 · $786.1k volume · 203 trades · since Jun 20, 20:00 EDT
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
+$596
Open P&L · 15 positions
−$532.4k
Closed-position win rate
100%
4 closed
Wallet age · markets
856d
19 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Crypto | 2 | 0 | 1.5 | -74.7 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? | LOW BUY Yes @ 71¢ | $14.2k | missed |
| MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? | HIGH BUY Yes @ 78¢ | $277.0k | missed |
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JSON: /api/v1/wallet/0x445717…