0x43cf…88fa

Directional Polymarket profile ↗ Backtest Alert me

What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 1 of 1. The prices it paid implied about 0.9 wins, so it did +9.0 pts better than the market expected. That's only 1 graded bet, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →

Current positions

Live from Polymarket (largest 8 open). P&L is unrealised, at today's price.

Foreign intervention in Gaza by December 31?−$655Yes · avg 42¢ → 12¢ · $246 KRG declares independence from Iraq by December 31?+$6No · avg 76¢ → 93¢ · $33

Price-adjusted edge

+9.0 pts

Called / graded

1/1

Expected from price

0.9

Flagged volume

$13.4k

Sample size1 graded · too small to judge skill

We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±28.6 pts std. error.

Lifetime P&L on Polymarket

−$17.5k

Last 30 days −$852 · $2.21M volume · 4,827 trades · since Nov 02, 19:00 EST

All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.

Polymarket profile

all trades, not just flags · public Data API

Realized P&L

+$3,059

Open P&L · 90 positions

−$20.4k

Closed-position win rate

70%

296 closed

Wallet age · markets

356d

358 markets traded

By category

Category	Graded	Called	Expected	Edge
Other	1	1	0.9	+9.0 pts

History

Market	Flag	Size	Implied odds	When	Result
Will TIME's Person of the Year for 2025 be a woman?	LOW BUY No @ 91¢	$13.4k	91%	317d ago	called

Will TIME's Person of the Year for 2025 be a woman?called

BUY No @ 91¢$13.4k

LOW 0x43cf…88fa · 317d ago

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