← Wallets
+$1,695No · avg 50¢ → 56¢ · $16.7k−$1,695Yes · avg 50¢ → 44¢ · $13.3k+$75No · avg 93¢ → 94.5¢ · $4,725 · 1 proven with, 0 against+$531No · avg 80¢ → 90.5¢ · $4,525+$770Yes · avg 66¢ → 90.8¢ · $2,774+$615Yes · avg 38¢ → 54¢ · $2,144+$126No · avg 90¢ → 96.3¢ · $1,926 · 1 proven with, 0 against+$268No · avg 78¢ → 91.6¢ · $1,832
What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 2 of 2. The prices it paid implied about 1.8 wins, so it did +9.5 pts better than the market expected. That's only 2 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Current positions
Live from Polymarket (largest 8 open). P&L is unrealised, at today's price.
Price-adjusted edge
+9.5 pts
Called / graded
2/2
Expected from price
1.8
Flagged volume
$104.6k
Sample size2 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±20.7 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
+$47.5k
Last 30 days +$4,783 · $3.77M volume · 3,966 trades · since Apr 01, 20:00 EDT
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
+$44.8k
Open P&L · 23 positions
+$2,908
Closed-position win rate
65%
336 closed
Wallet age · markets
207d
318 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Other | 2 | 2 | 1.8 | +9.5 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24? | LOW BUY No @ 92¢ | $13.0k | called |
 US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | LOW BUY Yes @ 99.8¢ | $29.9k | excluded |
 US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? | LOW SELL No @ 96.2¢ | $16.2k | excluded |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? | LOW BUY No @ 97.7¢ | $16.5k | excluded |
 Arizona Wildcats vs. Michigan Wolverines | LOW BUY Michigan Wolverines @ 94¢ | $18.7k | excluded |
 US forces enter Iran by April 30? | LOW BUY Yes @ 89¢ | $10.3k | called |
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