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What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 1 of 2. The prices it paid implied about 1.0 wins, so it did +0.4 pts better than the market expected. That's only 2 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
+0.4 pts
Called / graded
1/2
Expected from price
1.0
Flagged volume
$210.1k
Sample size2 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±35.3 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
−$658.7k
Last 30 days +$0 · $2.94M volume · 562 trades · since Apr 23, 20:00 EDT
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
+$425.9k
Open P&L · 43 positions
−$1.07M
Closed-position win rate
100%
31 closed
Wallet age · markets
184d
74 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sports | 2 | 1 | 1.0 | +0.4 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Will United States win on 2026-06-25? | MED BUY No @ 48¢ | $94.4k | called |
| Will United States win on 2026-06-12? | MED BUY No @ 51¢ | $115.8k | missed |
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JSON: /api/v1/wallet/0x4064f0…