0xrc

Directional Polymarket profile ↗ Backtest Alert me

What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 0 of 1. The prices it paid implied about 0.0 wins, so it did -3.9 pts worse than the market expected. That's only 1 graded bet, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →

Current positions

Live from Polymarket (largest 8 open). P&L is unrealised, at today's price.

Xi Jinping out before 2027?+$3,784No · avg 94.3¢ → 96.8¢ · $152.2k China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?+$11.3kNo · avg 87¢ → 96.5¢ · $118.9k Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?+$4,891No · avg 91.9¢ → 97.8¢ · $81.6k Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?+$1,237No · avg 82¢ → 90¢ · $15.6k Trump, Putin, and Xi seen together before 2027?+$343Yes · avg 82¢ → 88¢ · $5,313 China x Japan military clash before 2027?+$526No · avg 86¢ → 95.8¢ · $4,901 Will Trump and Putin meet next in China?+$357Yes · avg 67¢ → 78¢ · $2,436 Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027?+$175No · avg 87¢ → 94.5¢ · $2,200

Price-adjusted edge

-3.9 pts

Called / graded

0/1

Expected from price

0.0

Flagged volume

$49.8k

Sample size1 graded · too small to judge skill

We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±19.4 pts std. error.

Lifetime P&L on Polymarket

+$53.5k

Last 30 days +$8,386 · $2.08M volume · 3,219 trades · since Jan 08, 19:00 EST

All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.

Polymarket profile

all trades, not just flags · public Data API

Realized P&L

+$23.9k

Open P&L · 50 positions

+$23.5k

Closed-position win rate

85%

348 closed

Wallet age · markets

290d

388 markets traded

By category

Category	Graded	Called	Expected	Edge
Sports	1	0	0.0	-3.9 pts

History

Market	Flag	Size	Implied odds	When	Result
Suns vs. Trail Blazers	LOW BUY Trail Blazers @ 99.9¢	$19.8k	100%	2d ago	excluded
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	LOW SELL No @ 96.1¢	$10.3k	4%	116d ago	missed
Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026?	LOW BUY No @ 98.3¢	$19.7k	98%	242d ago	excluded

Suns vs. Trail Blazersexcluded

BUY Trail Blazers @ 99.9¢$19.8k

LOW 0xrc · 2d ago

Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?missed

SELL No @ 96.1¢$10.3k

LOW 0xrc · 116d ago

Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026?excluded

BUY No @ 98.3¢$19.7k

LOW 0xrc · 242d ago

Share this record

<a href="https://whalegrader.com/wallet/0x40047c2a7f97b6849ec2a665425c171dc4b6c40b"><img src="https://whalegrader.com/badge/wallet/0x40047c2a7f97b6849ec2a665425c171dc4b6c40b.svg" alt="WhaleGrader record"></a>

JSON: /api/v1/wallet/0x40047c…