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What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 0 of 2. The prices it paid implied about 1.3 wins, so it did -65.0 pts worse than the market expected. That's only 2 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
-65.0 pts
Called / graded
0/2
Expected from price
1.3
Flagged volume
$282.7k
Sample size2 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±33.7 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
−$311.2k
Last 30 days +$0 · $6.25M volume · 2,276 trades · since Sep 23, 20:00 EDT
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
+$883.0k
Open P&L · 156 positions
−$1.19M
Closed-position win rate
79%
187 closed
Wallet age · markets
395d
323 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sports | 2 | 0 | 1.3 | -65.0 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Los Angeles Angels vs. Los Angeles Dodgers | LOW BUY Los Angeles Dodgers @ 67¢ | $20.1k | missed |
| Chicago Cubs vs. Atlanta Braves | LOW BUY Atlanta Braves @ 63¢ | $15.1k | missed |
 Pistons vs. Cavaliers | LOW BUY Pistons @ 50¢ | $18.3k | excluded |
 Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-10? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $27.9k | excluded |
| Pistons vs. Magic | LOW BUY Pistons @ 60¢ | $14.6k | excluded |
| Spurs vs. Trail Blazers | LOW BUY Spurs @ 60¢ | $20.4k | excluded |
| Knicks vs. Hawks | LOW BUY Hawks @ 52¢ | $14.0k | excluded |
| Rockets vs. Lakers | LOW BUY Rockets @ 58¢ | $14.0k | excluded |
| Hornets vs. Magic | LOW SELL Magic @ 99.9¢ | $28.2k | excluded |
| Heat vs. Hornets | LOW SELL Heat @ 41¢ | $14.7k | excluded |
| Heat vs. Hornets | LOW BUY Heat @ 55¢ | $19.5k | excluded |
| Pistons vs. Timberwolves | LOW SELL Pistons @ 99.9¢ | $16.7k | excluded |
| Thunder vs. Mavericks: O/U 235.5 | LOW BUY Over @ 52¢ | $25.7k | excluded |
 Rams vs. Seahawks | LOW BUY Rams @ 46¢ | $33.2k | excluded |
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JSON: /api/v1/wallet/0x3b5a30…