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+$3,807No · avg 39¢ → 62¢ · $10.1k+$138Yes · avg 11¢ → 12¢ · $1,152−$217Yes · avg 35¢ → 20¢ · $307 · 0 proven with, 1 against
What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 1 of 2. The prices it paid implied about 1.0 wins, so it did -2.5 pts worse than the market expected. That's only 2 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Current positions
Live from Polymarket (largest 8 open). P&L is unrealised, at today's price.
Price-adjusted edge
-2.5 pts
Called / graded
1/2
Expected from price
1.0
Flagged volume
$500.2k
Sample size2 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±33.3 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
+$156.7k
Last 30 days −$306.2k · $57.36M volume · 54,849 trades · since Jan 27, 19:00 EST
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L · recent 500 closed
+$10.87M
Open P&L · 10 positions
−$4,373
Closed-position win rate
100%
500 closed
Wallet age · markets
270d
2726 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sports | 2 | 1 | 1.0 | -2.5 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Broncos vs. 49ers | LOW BUY 49ers @ 62¢ | $20.6k | excluded |
| Jaguars vs. Bengals | LOW BUY Jaguars @ 76¢ | $16.4k | excluded |
| Cardinals vs. Giants | LOW BUY Cardinals @ 78¢ | $13.7k | excluded |
| Rams vs. Broncos | LOW BUY Rams @ 74¢ | $12.3k | excluded |
| Packers vs. Jets | LOW BUY Packers @ 66¢ | $10.5k | excluded |
| Eagles vs. Titans | LOW BUY Titans @ 39¢ | $18.7k | excluded |
| Falcons vs. Steelers | MED BUY Steelers @ 81¢ | $57.8k 2.8× usual |
excluded |
 Will AC Milan win on 2026-08-23? | LOW BUY No @ 49¢ | $31.9k | excluded |
 Mexico vs. England: Team to Advance | LOW BUY England @ 69¢ | $45.5k 2.2× usual |
excluded |
| Mexico vs. England: O/U 1.5 | LOW BUY Under @ 35¢ | $21.7k | excluded |
| Will France win on 2026-06-26? | LOW BUY No @ 36¢ | $17.3k | missed |
 Spurs vs. Thunder | LOW BUY Thunder @ 69¢ | $10.2k | called |
 Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-19? | LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ | $67.4k 3.3× usual |
excluded |
| Thunder vs. Lakers | LOW SELL Thunder @ 82¢ | $24.6k | excluded |
| Lakers vs. Thunder | MED BUY Thunder @ 86¢ | $40.4k | excluded |
| Timberwolves vs. Spurs | MED BUY Spurs @ 78¢ | $42.7k 2.1× usual |
excluded |
 Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-29? | LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ | $22.5k | excluded |
| Celtics vs. 76ers | LOW BUY Celtics @ 68¢ | $12.0k | excluded |
| Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-03-11? | LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ | $13.9k | excluded |
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