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What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 1 of 1. The prices it paid implied about 1.0 wins, so it did +3.5 pts better than the market expected. That's only 1 graded bet, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
+3.5 pts
Called / graded
1/1
Expected from price
1.0
Flagged volume
$112.0k
Sample size1 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±18.4 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
+$2,593
Last 30 days +$0 · $1.30M volume · 953 trades · since Jun 01, 20:00 EDT
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
+$2,593
Open P&L · 0 positions
+$0
Closed-position win rate
78%
149 closed
Wallet age · markets
875d
147 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Other | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | +3.5 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Netanyahu out by March 31? | LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ | $24.5k | excluded |
| Netanyahu out by March 31? | LOW BUY No @ 96.9¢ | $23.8k | called |
 Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by March 31? | LOW BUY No @ 96.5¢ | $10.7k | called |
 Will André Ventura win the 2026 Portugal presidential election? | LOW SELL No @ 99.2¢ | $15.0k | excluded |
 Nicolás Maduro released from custody by January 9, 2026? | LOW BUY No @ 99.8¢ | $13.0k | excluded |
 Will Eleven die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"? | LOW BUY No @ 99.8¢ | $25.0k | excluded |
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JSON: /api/v1/wallet/0x2fe362…