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What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 0 of 1. The prices it paid implied about 0.2 wins, so it did -17.0 pts worse than the market expected. That's only 1 graded bet, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
-17.0 pts
Called / graded
0/1
Expected from price
0.2
Flagged volume
$17.0k
Sample size1 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±37.6 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
−$1,814
Last 30 days +$1 · $179.6k volume · 195 trades · since Jan 30, 19:00 EST
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
−$1,815
Open P&L · 3 positions
+$1
Closed-position win rate
84%
93 closed
Wallet age · markets
267d
— markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Economy | 1 | 0 | 0.2 | -17.0 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 meeting? | LOW SELL No @ 83¢ | $17.0k | missed |
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JSON: /api/v1/wallet/0x2a42f7…