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What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 0 of 3. The prices it paid implied about 2.7 wins, so it did -90.3 pts worse than the market expected. That's only 3 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
-90.3 pts
Called / graded
0/3
Expected from price
2.7
Flagged volume
$80.1k
Sample size3 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±17.0 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
−$51.9k
Last 30 days +$0 · $155.0k volume · 75 trades · since Oct 18, 20:00 EDT
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
−$42.9k
Open P&L · 1 positions
−$9,000
Closed-position win rate
89%
9 closed
Wallet age · markets
736d
9 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Other | 3 | 0 | 2.7 | -90.3 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026? | LOW BUY No @ 92¢ | $12.0k | missed |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026? | LOW BUY No @ 90¢ | $12.0k | missed |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026? | LOW BUY No @ 89¢ | $26.0k 2.0× usual |
missed |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025? | LOW BUY No @ 94.4¢ | $17.3k | excluded |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025? | LOW BUY No @ 87¢ | $12.8k | excluded |
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JSON: /api/v1/wallet/0x28a421…