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+$2Yes · avg 72¢ → 73¢ · $118+$19Yes · avg 72¢ → 94¢ · $79−$2Yes · avg 40¢ → 38¢ · $19
What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 1 of 1. The prices it paid implied about 0.8 wins, so it did +23.0 pts better than the market expected. That's only 1 graded bet, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Current positions
Live from Polymarket (largest 8 open). P&L is unrealised, at today's price.
Price-adjusted edge
+23.0 pts
Called / graded
1/1
Expected from price
0.8
Flagged volume
$130.5k
Sample size1 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±42.1 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
−$12.0k
Last 30 days +$13 · $8.80M volume · 6,439 trades · since Oct 16, 20:00 EDT
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L · recent 500 closed
+$39.7k
Open P&L · 46 positions
−$37.3k
Closed-position win rate
100%
500 closed
Wallet age · markets
372d
1155 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sports | 1 | 1 | 0.8 | +23.0 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-10? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $11.5k | excluded |
 Pistons vs. Magic | LOW BUY Pistons @ 99.9¢ | $14.1k | excluded |
 Miami Open: Jiri Lehecka vs Jannik Sinner | LOW SELL Jannik Sinner @ 99.9¢ | $14.4k | excluded |
| Tennessee Volunteers vs. Michigan Wolverines | LOW SELL Tennessee Volunteers @ 23¢ | $16.1k | called |
| Pistons vs. Timberwolves | LOW SELL Pistons @ 99.9¢ | $17.2k | excluded |
| Illinois Fighting Illini vs. Iowa Hawkeyes | LOW SELL Iowa Hawkeyes @ 28¢ | $14.2k | excluded |
| Cavaliers vs. Nets | LOW SELL Cavaliers @ 99.9¢ | $11.4k | excluded |
 US strikes Iran by February 27, 2026? | LOW BUY No @ 98.3¢ | $11.1k | excluded |
| US strikes Iran by February 27, 2026? | LOW BUY No @ 91¢ | $10.4k | excluded |
| US strikes Iran by February 26, 2026? | LOW BUY No @ 99.3¢ | $10.0k | excluded |
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