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What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 0 of 2. The prices it paid implied about 0.1 wins, so it did -6.1 pts worse than the market expected. That's only 2 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
-6.1 pts
Called / graded
0/2
Expected from price
0.1
Flagged volume
$48.1k
Sample size2 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±17.0 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
−$21.6k
Last 30 days +$0 · $1.47M volume · 1,405 trades · since Sep 30, 20:00 EDT
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
+$10.7k
Open P&L · 41 positions
−$31.4k
Closed-position win rate
65%
63 closed
Wallet age · markets
389d
92 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Politics | 2 | 0 | 0.1 | -6.1 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? | MED SELL Yes @ 94.4¢ | $35.3k | missed |
| Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? | LOW SELL Yes @ 93.3¢ | $12.8k | missed |
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JSON: /api/v1/wallet/0x1ce226…