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What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 1 of 6. The prices it paid implied about 3.7 wins, so it did -45.8 pts worse than the market expected. That's only 6 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
-45.8 pts
Called / graded
1/6
Expected from price
3.7
Flagged volume
$188.2k
Sample size6 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±18.6 pts std. error.
Graded P&L at their stakes
−$84k6 graded bets in the order they resolved · 1 won. Each step is one bet: win pays (1−price)/price × stake, loss costs the stake.
Past graded bets, not a prediction. Information, not advice.
Without their best bet
Leave out the single bet that helped most (Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? at 60¢) and the edge is -63.0 pts. If that falls apart, one bet made the record.
Calibration: won vs price paid
20–40¢
0% vs 36% · n=1
40–60¢
0% vs 52% · n=1
60–80¢
50% vs 62% · n=2
80–100¢
0% vs 82% · n=2
Bar = how often they won. White tick = what the price implied.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
−$160.3k
Last 30 days +$13.6k · $3.38M volume · 5,549 trades · since Jun 19, 20:00 EDT
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
+$66.5k
Open P&L · 33 positions
−$218.4k
Closed-position win rate
73%
62 closed
Wallet age · markets
127d
80 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sports | 6 | 1 | 3.7 | -45.8 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 France vs. England: Team to Win | LOW BUY France @ 69¢ | $36.0k | excluded |
| Norway vs. England: Team to Advance | LOW BUY Norway @ 36¢ | $21.2k | missed |
| Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? | LOW BUY Yes @ 52¢ | $24.5k | missed |
| Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? | LOW BUY Yes @ 60¢ | $21.0k | called |
| Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? | LOW SELL No @ 36¢ | $11.0k | missed |
| Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? | LOW BUY Yes @ 68¢ | $33.3k | excluded |
| Will England win on 2026-06-23? | LOW BUY Yes @ 82¢ | $24.6k | missed |
| Will England win on 2026-06-23? | LOW BUY Yes @ 81¢ | $16.7k | missed |
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