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What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 3 of 4. The prices it paid implied about 2.0 wins, so it did +26.2 pts better than the market expected. That's only 4 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
+26.2 pts
Called / graded
3/4
Expected from price
2.0
Flagged volume
$632.4k
Sample size4 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±22.8 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
+$215.0k
Last 30 days +$0 · $2.90M volume · 527 trades · since Jun 03, 20:00 EDT
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
+$355.6k
Open P&L · 49 positions
−$135.5k
Closed-position win rate
79%
43 closed
Wallet age · markets
143d
94 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sports | 4 | 3 | 2.0 | +26.2 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | LOW BUY Yes @ 21¢ | $18.2k | missed |
 Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? | MED BUY Yes @ 39¢ | $145.6k 5.3× usual |
excluded |
| Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? | MED SELL Yes @ 41¢ | $150.6k 5.4× usual |
missed |
| Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? | MED BUY Yes @ 41¢ | $135.9k 4.9× usual |
called |
| Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? | LOW BUY Yes @ 69¢ | $96.5k 3.5× usual |
called |
| Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? | LOW BUY Yes @ 69¢ | $27.7k | excluded |
| Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? | LOW BUY Yes @ 59¢ | $21.6k | excluded |
| Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? | LOW BUY Yes @ 68¢ | $16.7k | called |
 Knicks vs. Spurs | LOW BUY Knicks @ 37¢ | $19.5k | called |
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JSON: /api/v1/wallet/0x132f78…