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cccyun

Directional Polymarket profile ↗ Backtest Alert me
What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 1 of 3. The prices it paid implied about 1.1 wins, so it did -3.8 pts worse than the market expected. That's only 3 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
-3.8 pts
Called / graded
1/3
Expected from price
1.1
Flagged volume
$243.0k
Sample size3 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±27.4 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
−$13.3k
Last 30 days +$0 · $3.00M volume · 1,528 trades · since May 08, 20:00 EDT

All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.

Polymarket profile

all trades, not just flags · public Data API
Realized P&L
−$8,550
Open P&L · 5 positions
−$4,223
Closed-position win rate
43%
86 closed
Wallet age · markets
169d
92 markets traded

By category

CategoryGradedCalledExpectedEdge
Crypto200.6-30.8 pts
Sports110.5+50.0 pts

History

MarketFlagSizeImplied oddsWhenResult
United States vs. Belgium: Team to AdvanceLOW BUY United States @ 55¢ $13.8k55% 110d agomissed
United States vs. Belgium: Team to AdvanceLOW SELL United States @ 52¢ $23.3k48% 110d agocalled
United States vs. Belgium: Team to AdvanceMED BUY United States @ 53¢ $47.0k
3.9× usual
53% 110d agomissed
Will United States win on 2026-06-12?LOW BUY Yes @ 50¢ $11.1k50% 135d agocalled
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?LOW SELL No @ 62¢ $11.4k38% 135d agoexcluded
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?LOW SELL No @ 99.8¢ $38.7k
3.2× usual
0% 145d agoexcluded
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?LOW SELL No @ 94¢ $11.8k6% 145d agomissed
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?LOW BUY No @ 95¢ $11.0k95% 145d agocalled
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ $17.2k0% 145d agoexcluded
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?LOW SELL No @ 58¢ $11.9k42% 149d agocalled
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?LOW BUY No @ 50¢ $11.6k50% 150d agomissed
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?LOW SELL No @ 68¢ $22.8k32% 160d agomissed
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?LOW SELL No @ 70¢ $11.5k30% 160d agomissed

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