swag37

Directional Polymarket profile ↗ Backtest Alert me

What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 2 of 2. The prices it paid implied about 1.8 wins, so it did +10.7 pts better than the market expected. That's only 2 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →

Price-adjusted edge

+10.7 pts

Called / graded

2/2

Expected from price

1.8

Flagged volume

$214.4k

Sample size2 graded · too small to judge skill

We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±21.9 pts std. error.

Lifetime P&L on Polymarket

+$11.8k

Last 30 days +$0 · $7.41M volume · 5,370 trades · since Sep 17, 20:00 EDT

All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.

Polymarket profile

all trades, not just flags · public Data API

Realized P&L

+$19.2k

Open P&L · 0 positions

+$0

Closed-position win rate

53%

72 closed

Wallet age · markets

402d

73 markets traded

By category

Category	Graded	Called	Expected	Edge
Politics	2	2	1.8	+10.7 pts

History

Market	Flag	Size	Implied odds	When	Result
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?	LOW BUY No @ 60¢	$19.0k	60%	238d ago	excluded
Will António José Seguro win the 2026 Portugal presidential election?	LOW SELL Yes @ 98.9¢	$29.7k	1%	267d ago	excluded
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31?	LOW BUY No @ 93¢	$12.1k	93%	278d ago	called
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31?	LOW SELL No @ 79¢	$15.3k	21%	283d ago	missed
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?	MED BUY Yes @ 88¢	$27.0k	88%	360d ago	called
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?	MED BUY Yes @ 91¢	$111.3k 4.8× usual	91%	360d ago	called

Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?excluded

BUY No @ 60¢$19.0k

LOW swag37 · 238d ago

Will António José Seguro win the 2026 Portugal presidential election?excluded

SELL Yes @ 98.9¢$29.7k

LOW swag37 · 267d ago

Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31?called

BUY No @ 93¢$12.1k

LOW swag37 · 278d ago

Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31?missed

SELL No @ 79¢$15.3k

LOW swag37 · 283d ago

Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?called

BUY Yes @ 88¢$27.0k

MED swag37 · 360d ago

Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?called

BUY Yes @ 91¢$111.3k

MED swag37 · 360d ago

Share this record

<a href="https://whalegrader.com/wallet/0x0a3502758e5df134ce95212b7c3388ac64d20d46"><img src="https://whalegrader.com/badge/wallet/0x0a3502758e5df134ce95212b7c3388ac64d20d46.svg" alt="WhaleGrader record"></a>

JSON: /api/v1/wallet/0x0a3502…