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What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 1 of 3. The prices it paid implied about 0.9 wins, so it did +3.1 pts better than the market expected. That's only 3 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
+3.1 pts
Called / graded
1/3
Expected from price
0.9
Flagged volume
$69.9k
Sample size3 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±21.7 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
−$89.5k
Last 30 days +$0 · $2.00M volume · 625 trades · since Dec 16, 19:00 EST
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
+$4,436
Open P&L · 39 positions
−$92.9k
Closed-position win rate
65%
379 closed
Wallet age · markets
313d
411 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sports | 3 | 1 | 0.9 | +3.1 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| LOW SELL No @ 82¢ | $21.0k | missed | |
| MED SELL No @ 94.4¢ | $27.8k | missed | |
| LOW BUY Purdue Boilermakers @ 77¢ | $10.4k | excluded | |
| LOW BUY Raptors @ 67¢ | $10.7k | called |
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JSON: /api/v1/wallet/0x0940a7…