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+$2,441No · avg 92¢ → 97.9¢ · $40.9k+$20No · avg 80¢ → 95¢ · $122
What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 1 of 1. The prices it paid implied about 0.9 wins, so it did +5.0 pts better than the market expected. That's only 1 graded bet, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Current positions
Live from Polymarket (largest 8 open). P&L is unrealised, at today's price.
Price-adjusted edge
+5.0 pts
Called / graded
1/1
Expected from price
0.9
Flagged volume
$58.0k
Sample size1 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±21.8 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
+$22.8k
Last 30 days +$1,914 · $1.96M volume · 1,600 trades · since Sep 25, 20:00 EDT
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
+$22.6k
Open P&L · 11 positions
+$401
Closed-position win rate
91%
171 closed
Wallet age · markets
759d
180 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Other | 1 | 1 | 0.9 | +5.0 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31? | LOW BUY No @ 97.8¢ | $14.0k | excluded |
 US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? | LOW BUY No @ 95¢ | $12.2k | called |
 Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 15, 2026? | LOW BUY No @ 98.8¢ | $19.0k | excluded |
 Netanyahu out by April 30? | LOW BUY No @ 98.7¢ | $12.9k | excluded |
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JSON: /api/v1/wallet/0x04fc47…