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What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 0 of 2. The prices it paid implied about 0.9 wins, so it did -44.5 pts worse than the market expected. That's only 2 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
-44.5 pts
Called / graded
0/2
Expected from price
0.9
Flagged volume
$279.7k
Sample size2 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±34.2 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
−$695.4k
Last 30 days +$0 · $1.25M volume · 153 trades · since Aug 22, 20:00 EDT
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
+$0
Open P&L · 4 positions
−$688.9k
Closed-position win rate
—
0 closed
Wallet age · markets
63d
4 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sports | 2 | 0 | 0.9 | -44.5 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Dota 2: TEAM VISION vs Team Spirit (BO5) - The International Playoffs | HIGH BUY TEAM VISION @ 56¢ | $266.5k | missed |
| Dota 2: Team Yandex vs Team Spirit (BO3) - The International Playoffs | MED BUY Team Yandex @ 33¢ | $13.2k | missed |
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JSON: /api/v1/wallet/0x03448f…