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CDAP1

Directional Polymarket profile ↗ Backtest Alert me
What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 0 of 2. The prices it paid implied about 0.3 wins, so it did -15.5 pts worse than the market expected. That's only 2 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →

Open bets: who else is there

Other rated wallets holding the same side, or the other side, of this wallet's open bets.

None of its 1 open bets has a proven or losing wallet on either side yet.

Price-adjusted edge
-15.5 pts
Called / graded
0/2
Expected from price
0.3
Flagged volume
$191.9k
Sample size2 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±25.6 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
+$164.4k
Last 30 days −$3,862 · $10.36M volume · 8,207 trades · since Jan 21, 19:00 EST

All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.

Polymarket profile

all trades, not just flags · public Data API
Realized P&L
+$172.0k
Open P&L · 36 positions
−$65.2k
Closed-position win rate
74%
23 closed
Wallet age · markets
276d
56 markets traded

By category

CategoryGradedCalledExpectedEdge
Economy200.3-15.5 pts

History

MarketFlagSizeImplied oddsWhenResult
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting?MED SELL Yes @ 76¢ $25.0k24% 2d agopending
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?MED SELL Yes @ 81¢ $29.0k19% 43d agomissed
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?LOW BUY Yes @ 50¢ $10.0k50% 44d agocalled
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?LOW BUY Yes @ 49¢ $21.6k49% 51d agocalled
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?LOW BUY Yes @ 53¢ $10.3k53% 54d agocalled
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?LOW SELL Yes @ 34¢ $34.0k66% 58d agomissed
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?LOW SELL Yes @ 31¢ $12.4k69% 73d agomissed
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?LOW SELL Yes @ 50¢ $12.6k50% 102d agomissed
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?LOW SELL Yes @ 83¢ $12.9k17% 219d agomissed
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?LOW SELL Yes @ 86¢ $24.1k14% 219d agomissed

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