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What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 1 of 3. The prices it paid implied about 1.6 wins, so it did -20.7 pts worse than the market expected. That's only 3 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
-20.7 pts
Called / graded
1/3
Expected from price
1.6
Flagged volume
$231.4k
Sample size3 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±28.7 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
−$97.3k
Last 30 days −$29 · $2.04M volume · 2,143 trades · since Mar 03, 19:00 EST
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
−$32.2k
Open P&L · 15 positions
−$64.2k
Closed-position win rate
62%
81 closed
Wallet age · markets
235d
96 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sports | 3 | 1 | 1.6 | -20.7 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Will Newcastle United FC win on 2026-05-17? | LOW BUY No @ 54¢ | $27.0k | excluded |
 Avalanche vs. Wild | LOW BUY Avalanche @ 57¢ | $13.7k | called |
 Arizona Wildcats vs. Michigan Wolverines | LOW BUY Michigan Wolverines @ 87¢ | $66.9k 2.8× usual |
excluded |
| Arizona Wildcats vs. Michigan Wolverines | LOW SELL Arizona Wildcats @ 13¢ | $12.0k | excluded |
| Arizona Wildcats vs. Michigan Wolverines | LOW BUY Arizona Wildcats @ 51¢ | $49.5k 2.1× usual |
excluded |
| Spurs vs. Clippers | LOW BUY Clippers @ 55¢ | $23.0k | missed |
 Spread: Duke Blue Devils (-6.5) | LOW BUY Duke Blue Devils @ 50¢ | $14.9k | missed |
| Texas Longhorns vs. Purdue Boilermakers | LOW BUY Purdue Boilermakers @ 77¢ | $24.4k | excluded |
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