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+$382Nemiga · avg 31¢ → 34¢ · $4,793−$58TheMongolz · avg 24¢ → 12¢ · $63−$52TYLOO · avg 20¢ → 3.5¢ · $11
What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 2 of 10. The prices it paid implied about 5.2 wins, so it did -32.3 pts worse than the market expected. That's only 10 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Current positions
Live from Polymarket (largest 8 open). P&L is unrealised, at today's price.
Price-adjusted edge
-32.3 pts
Called / graded
2/10
Expected from price
5.2
Flagged volume
$252.8k
Sample size10 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±15.7 pts std. error.
Graded P&L at their stakes
−$95k10 graded bets in the order they resolved · 2 won. Each step is one bet: win pays (1−price)/price × stake, loss costs the stake.
Past graded bets, not a prediction. Information, not advice.
Without their best bet
Leave out the single bet that helped most (Counter-Strike: Sangal vs Brute (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode at 61¢) and the edge is -40.2 pts. If that falls apart, one bet made the record.
Calibration: won vs price paid
40–60¢
0% vs 50% · n=8
60–80¢
100% vs 61% · n=2
Bar = how often they won. White tick = what the price implied.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
−$161.9k
Last 30 days −$189.4k · $23.10M volume · 25,408 trades · since May 28, 20:00 EDT
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
+$4.85M
Open P&L · 216 positions
−$5.02M
Closed-position win rate
95%
292 closed
Wallet age · markets
148d
502 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sports | 10 | 2 | 5.2 | -32.3 pts |
History
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