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What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 2 of 2. The prices it paid implied about 0.9 wins, so it did +52.5 pts better than the market expected. That's only 2 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
+52.5 pts
Called / graded
2/2
Expected from price
0.9
Flagged volume
$1.38M
Sample size2 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±35.1 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
+$485.1k
Last 30 days −$12.8k · $43.07M volume · 7,665 trades · since Jan 02, 19:00 EST
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
+$5.50M
Open P&L · 182 positions
−$4.95M
Closed-position win rate
85%
310 closed
Wallet age · markets
660d
484 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sports | 1 | 1 | 0.4 | +58.0 pts |
| Other | 1 | 1 | 0.5 | +47.0 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Thunder vs. Spurs | LOW BUY Spurs @ 45¢ | $10.0k | excluded |
| 76ers vs. Knicks | LOW SELL 76ers @ 99.9¢ | $28.3k | excluded |
| 76ers vs. Knicks | LOW BUY 76ers @ 39¢ | $11.0k | excluded |
 Bengals vs. Texans | LOW BUY Bengals @ 42¢ | $10.8k | called |
| Broncos vs. Chiefs | LOW SELL Chiefs @ 98.9¢ | $17.0k | excluded |
 Cincinnati Open: Rafael Jodar vs Alejandro Tabilo | LOW SELL Rafael Jodar @ 97¢ | $14.0k | excluded |
 LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA (BO3) - LCK Round 3-4 Legend Group | LOW BUY KT Rolster @ 36¢ | $12.5k | excluded |
| LoL: T1 vs Hanwha Life Esports (BO3) - LCK Round 3-4 Legend Group | LOW SELL Hanwha Life Esports @ 99.9¢ | $15.2k | excluded |
 Minnesota Twins vs. Cleveland Guardians | LOW SELL Cleveland Guardians @ 77¢ | $12.0k | excluded |
| Minnesota Twins vs. Cleveland Guardians | LOW BUY Cleveland Guardians @ 58¢ | $10.3k | excluded |
| Spread: Spurs (-6.5) | LOW SELL Knicks @ 99.9¢ | $81.5k 4.1× usual |
excluded |
| Spread: Spurs (-6.5) | LOW BUY Knicks @ 49¢ | $39.9k 2.0× usual |
excluded |
| Spurs vs. Thunder | LOW BUY Thunder @ 56¢ | $11.6k | excluded |
| Atlanta Braves vs. Cincinnati Reds | LOW SELL Atlanta Braves @ 48¢ | $11.9k | excluded |
| Atlanta Braves vs. Cincinnati Reds | LOW BUY Atlanta Braves @ 53¢ | $11.0k | excluded |
 Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? | LOW BUY No @ 53¢ | $16.1k | called |
| Roland Garros ATP: Karen Khachanov vs Jesper de Jong | LOW BUY Karen Khachanov @ 46¢ | $13.0k | excluded |
| Spurs vs. Thunder | MED SELL Thunder @ 91¢ | $30.5k | excluded |
| Spurs vs. Thunder | LOW BUY Thunder @ 59¢ | $19.8k | excluded |
| Thunder vs. Spurs | LOW BUY Thunder @ 43¢ | $14.7k | excluded |
| Thunder vs. Spurs | LOW SELL Thunder @ 93¢ | $20.4k | excluded |
 Canadiens vs. Lightning | LOW BUY Lightning @ 60¢ | $40.2k 2.0× usual |
excluded |
| Rockets vs. Lakers | LOW SELL Rockets @ 99.9¢ | $58.3k 3.0× usual |
excluded |
| Rockets vs. Lakers | LOW BUY Rockets @ 42¢ | $21.0k | excluded |
| Magic vs. Pistons | LOW BUY Pistons @ 66¢ | $27.2k | excluded |
| LoL: HANJIN BRION vs Nongshim Red Force (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 | LOW SELL Nongshim Red Force @ 99.9¢ | $67.3k 3.4× usual |
excluded |
| LoL: HANJIN BRION vs Nongshim Red Force (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 | LOW BUY Nongshim Red Force @ 44¢ | $17.8k | excluded |
| San Diego Padres vs. Los Angeles Angels | LOW BUY San Diego Padres @ 49¢ | $20.3k | excluded |
| Rockets vs. Lakers | LOW BUY Rockets @ 48¢ | $30.5k | excluded |
| Rockets vs. Lakers | LOW SELL Lakers @ 52¢ | $31.9k | excluded |
| Warriors vs. Suns | LOW BUY Suns @ 56¢ | $19.5k | excluded |
| Hornets vs. Magic | LOW BUY Magic @ 42¢ | $19.3k | excluded |
| Warriors vs. Clippers | LOW BUY Warriors @ 34¢ | $19.6k | excluded |
| Magic vs. 76ers | LOW SELL 76ers @ 99.9¢ | $49.2k 2.5× usual |
excluded |
| Magic vs. 76ers | LOW BUY 76ers @ 50¢ | $24.2k | excluded |
| Trail Blazers vs. Suns | LOW SELL Trail Blazers @ 99.9¢ | $42.9k 2.2× usual |
excluded |
| Trail Blazers vs. Suns | LOW BUY Trail Blazers @ 38¢ | $11.0k | excluded |
 Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-04-14? | LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ | $25.8k | excluded |
| Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-04-14? | LOW BUY No @ 59¢ | $15.0k | excluded |
 Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Rio Group A | LOW BUY Team Falcons @ 53¢ | $12.7k | excluded |
| Cavaliers vs. Lakers | LOW BUY Cavaliers @ 46¢ | $18.8k | excluded |
 Michigan State Spartans vs. Connecticut Huskies | LOW BUY Michigan State Spartans @ 44¢ | $65.4k 3.3× usual |
excluded |
| Spread: Duke Blue Devils (-6.5) | LOW SELL St. Johns Red Storm @ 99.9¢ | $124.1k 6.3× usual |
excluded |
| Spread: Duke Blue Devils (-6.5) | LOW BUY St. Johns Red Storm @ 49¢ | $31.4k | excluded |
| Spread: Duke Blue Devils (-6.5) | LOW BUY St. Johns Red Storm @ 50¢ | $11.7k | called |
| Illinois Fighting Illini vs. Houston Cougars | LOW BUY Illinois Fighting Illini @ 44¢ | $24.0k | excluded |
| Nebraska Cornhuskers vs. Iowa Hawkeyes | LOW SELL Iowa Hawkeyes @ 99.9¢ | $94.0k 4.8× usual |
excluded |
| Nebraska Cornhuskers vs. Iowa Hawkeyes | LOW BUY Iowa Hawkeyes @ 47¢ | $44.0k 2.2× usual |
excluded |
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