-JB-

Directional Polymarket profile ↗ Backtest Alert me

What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 1 of 1. The prices it paid implied about 0.1 wins, so it did +86.3 pts better than the market expected. That's only 1 graded bet, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →

Current positions

Live from Polymarket (largest 8 open). P&L is unrealised, at today's price.

Will Missouri enact a data center moratorium by December 31, 2028?−$882Yes · avg 39¢ → 26¢ · $1,665

Price-adjusted edge

+86.3 pts

Called / graded

1/1

Expected from price

0.1

Flagged volume

$271.0k

Sample size1 graded · too small to judge skill

We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±34.4 pts std. error.

Lifetime P&L on Polymarket

+$135.4k

Last 30 days +$6,340 · $69.12M volume · 58,717 trades · since Mar 21, 20:00 EDT

All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.

Polymarket profile

all trades, not just flags · public Data API

Realized P&L · recent 500 closed

+$185.8k

Open P&L · 1 positions

−$882

Closed-position win rate

100%

500 closed

Wallet age · markets

947d

7150 markets traded

By category

Category	Graded	Called	Expected	Edge
Sports	1	1	0.1	+86.3 pts

History

Market	Flag	Size	Implied odds	When	Result
Milwaukee Brewers vs. St. Louis Cardinals	LOW BUY Milwaukee Brewers @ 99.9¢	$75.3k	100%	108d ago	excluded
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	LOW BUY Yes @ 14¢	$23.5k	14%	128d ago	called
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14?	LOW BUY No @ 99.9¢	$47.3k	100%	131d ago	excluded
Louisville Cardinals vs. Michigan State Spartans	LOW BUY Michigan State Spartans @ 99.9¢	$25.0k	100%	216d ago	excluded
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?	LOW BUY Yes @ 99.9¢	$99.9k 2.1× usual	100%	353d ago	excluded

Milwaukee Brewers vs. St. Louis Cardinalsexcluded

BUY Milwaukee Brewers @ 99.9¢$75.3k

LOW -JB- · 108d ago

Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?called

BUY Yes @ 14¢$23.5k

LOW -JB- · 128d ago

Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14?excluded

BUY No @ 99.9¢$47.3k

LOW -JB- · 131d ago

Louisville Cardinals vs. Michigan State Spartansexcluded

BUY Michigan State Spartans @ 99.9¢$25.0k

LOW -JB- · 216d ago

Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?excluded

BUY Yes @ 99.9¢$99.9k

LOW -JB- · 353d ago

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